Will an African Great Lake Eruption Kill Millions or Can a Climate Solution Prevent That Fate?
What can we do to stop a killer event from eliminating 5 million people in their sleep?
1. Why This Lake? It Hardly Looks Dangerous
A threat looms, deadly enough to wipe out millions of lives locally, within a single day. The timing is less predictable, destined to happen on any one fateful day within the next century. One part of the scenario was initiated millennia ago. Deep in the remote Lake Kivu, quite innocuously, anaerobic microbes digest dead algae. Slowly, silently, they emit gas, accumulating at depth in the lake. Gas saturation is edging toward 100%. The second part is a magma chamber below the lake. It’s hot and connected to the volcano in the picture above, which has a permanently bubbling caldera of lava.
Saturation is achieved by pressurizing gas into water until it’s fully loaded, like a SodaStream does into a water bottle. Nature can load gases into this lake’s water until it can take no more; it’s then 100% saturated. In the deepest part of the lake, at 50 bar pressure, it’s 200 times what you pump into car tires. We know that at full saturation, the lake’s total gas load will erupt spontaneously and spectacularly. So, what do we do?
Two Scenarios, Both Disastrous, But One Is More Likely
Ominously, “Black Swan” events can pre-empt that predictable timeline. Consider a large volcanic spill from a live volcano, flowing down and pouring deep into the lake. Lava can inject so much heat energy. In penetrating deeper than 260 m it triggers a secondary eruption as it hits the gas-rich pocket. A blast of violently boiling water sets up a fast-rising auto-siphon, disgorging all the lake’s accumulated gases. It’s unstoppable, emitting gigatons of carbon as a critical danger to 5 million people.
A second, known trigger does the same thing. Although though less frequent, it’s more violent. Africa’s rift valley is gradually dividing Africa in two. The rift is 7,000 km long, extending from Eritrea to Mozambique, hosting all the deep Great Lakes. What we fear most, at this hot spot in the rift, is a major rifting event that occurs at million-year intervals, when the gas-laden lake contacts the exposed magma below it. The result is many times more violent, rapidly discharging tsunamis and a gas cloud.
Around the Great Lakes, mountain peaks contain remnants of the Congo Equatorial Forest that survive deforestation. These cover the Virunga Range of extinct volcanoes slowly migrating eastwards, some by 200 km, and are home to the World’s last gorillas in the wild. Somehow, they learned where to live safely, higher up in the mountains.
But Millions of People Live There
At lake level, dimly lit cities host the crowded-in war refugees. Most have fled decades of militia conflicts deeper in the DRC’s hinterland. The population of Goma and Bukavu increased more than ten-fold due to the regional militia conflicts, seeking a more survivable location. 15,000 UN troops are located there. The cities each hold about 2 million people, vastly more than the infrastructure, housing, and community needs were built for. 2-3 million people have died in 30 years of conflict in the region.
At 1467 m above sea level lies the highest Great Lake, Kivu. Once, tragically, it was a corpse-ridden scene of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide. Further to the south, the Rift Valley drops 700 m to Lake Tanganyika, the world’s second-largest lake, 670 km long and 1470 m deep, the deepest of all lakes. For many reasons, the rift is a magnet for people.
Like a Scene from a B-movie plot, from Joseph Conrad’s “Heart of Darkness”
East of this lake’s outfall, the source of the Congo River, was the locale of Joseph Conrad’s novel “The Heart of Darkness”, dating from 1899. Several movie renditions, famously including the Vietnam War classic “Apocalypse Now”, have borrowed the theme. A real-life scene still echoes the harshest realities, for millions living there. It is home to descendants of the same communities, colonized by Belgium's King Leopold II. In his private 19th-century fiefdom, life for the people remains a struggle 120 years on. With militias still claiming control over pockets of territory, democracy struggles to emerge. People fitfully search for an escape from a continuing rotation of autocracies.
Six generations later, a new genre of opportunists seeks to exploit rich resources in novel ways. Too often the exploitation is under the purview of opportunists. They hold resources up for ransom, and not on behalf of the people. Once again, the forests and lake’s riches are raided at the expense of indigent people. Gold, ivory, or timber gave way this century to 21st-century pirates exploiting diamonds, “coltan”, oil and gas, and rare-earth minerals. A fresh rogue’s gallery of opportunists has mobilized to seek and connive their way to access, once they figure out who in power controls access to it. Conrad’s Kurst character appears as repetitiously as Bill Murray in “Groundhog Day”.
A Threat in the Hands of Rogues Becomes More Dangerous
Lurking in Kivu is the growing threat of a deadly release gas cloud. It’s composed mostly of carbon dioxide and methane gas. But a fraction of a percent is hydrogen sulphide. Physics can explain how Lake Kivu thus becomes a ticking time bomb. A combination of accumulated gas with either of two trigger events can see this lake erupt at virtually any time in the next century. The likelier trigger is a lava spill, able to empty Mt Nyiragongo’s seething caldera by pouring from a split in the crater wall and then surging through Goma’s streets. Once reaching the lake shore, it will spill into it as a red waterfall, steaming violently as it plunges deep.
An expanding column of bubbling water will arise, moving closer to the centre of the lake. The growing surge of gas will radiate circular tsunamis to the coastline. The vapour cloud follows, as a toxic fog blanketing the water. This is not unlike the picture seen when the Nord Stream Gas pipelines ruptured under the Baltic Sea in September 2022. Kivu will release thousands of times more gas. Containing 80% CO2 and 2000 ppm H2S, this emission cloud will be dense, foggy, and toxic, lurking for days or even weeks over the lake, lying over 100 m deep above the lake. Once caught up in it, nobody can get out alive. No rescue is possible, nor is the retrieval of victims, with safe access impossible for weeks or more.
2. How is this Threat so Catastrophic, Why Now?
In this introductory sub-stack, I explain the core science behind this threat, and ask; “Can we prevent this disaster before it’s too late?” We should also ask, “How late is too late to prevent it happening?”, and “What warning can be used, or could be given to residents to allow them to flee?”
What if the first warning was to hear the rumble of a crashing wave? Few would even hear it at night. Tsunamis reaching the shore could signal an eruption’s start. The water level rises and the characteristic gas cloud, rushing to the shore, would be next. The only escape is to run for the hills, and then to keep climbing. Few will make it by driving. Very few may make it on the narrow roads.
My learning on this subject started 22 years ago. I listened to a wild-sounding story about volcanoes, a lake, and gas within it that could all blow up. It was a story told by a technical team from the Rwandan government, by engineers who lived and worked on the lake. Weeks later I was in a speeding Marine patrol boat down this Great Lake. Due north the wake pointed to Mt Nyiragongo, a lively volcano with an SO2-rich gas plume drifting westwards. The sky was hazy, a signature of Earth’s biggest source of sulphur dioxide. That day the lake was calm at the surface, deceptively so considering that a sinister threat lay in wait, hundreds of metres deeper.
Howard Roberts, shown below, a veteran chemical engineer, asked me to join him. We started this trip in Kigali, scanning all the research at the Ministry of Energy. We read up on schemes studied to extract gas from the lake. Most should have been debunked before publishing, by any competent engineering review. A more recent study from Egypt made more sense, in being built offshore and operating in deeper water.
Next up, we drove four hours on mountain roads to the lake. We first inspected a 1965 gas extraction unit, operating onshore, and a brewery that used its gas. They wanted fuel to run their boilers. The government was motivated to get more energy, with power blackouts lasting much of every day. They were determined to get the gas out.
The Threat is very much Alive.
Since that first visit, this 4300m high volcano has twice spilled rivers of fast-moving lava from “flank spills”, both through the city of Goma. The first occurred just ten days after our visit, penetrating the lake to 80 m depth. The following one in May 2020 was more spectacular, but lava failed to reach the lake. Half a million people fled the city each time. Dozens died from lava flowing via streets, setting gas stations alight. Refugees understood the threat and fled east and west, but most returned in a week.
Most who’d fled were already refugees from the ongoing civil strife in the DRC or the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Goma became an unlikely refuge from these conflicts, safer for being patrolled by UN peacekeepers. Surrounded by war, by volcanoes to the north, and a risky lake to the south, this city sits at the crossroads of multiple mortal threats. For millions, Goma still became a last resort of hope but a barely safe refuge.
3. Who Can Help or Support These Communities? Can anyone help Mitigate the Threat?
Among many diverse risks, mitigation of the political context of this region lies well outside our abilities. What can engineers and scientists do that 5000 UN troops and the DRC military seem unable to contain militias? Then how can the many wild natural events ever be tamed? Who would ever fund any initiatives in such a place?
But there is more hope to make the main threat safe. We can develop and build out the harvesting of gas as the means to de-risk the lake. That’s one of the four risks.
Can a more complete turnaround for the regional ecosystem be initiated by designing a clean energy source? Will huge economic benefits be a driver? Can something more be achieved by downstream uses of all the gases from this lake to make it safer? Regionally, 99% of homes still use charcoal for cooking. Deforestation, for example, could be reversed by the widespread supply of cooking gas by pipeline networks to homes. Gas is an improvement over charcoal, in terms of emissions and health.
Support Comes at a Cost. Who will Pay?
Experience says that most ideas and solution designs are quicker to complete than the sourcing of funds for such solutions. Climate Impact Solutions can get the press and attention globally. But for deep into Africa, it’s mainly lofty talk getting little or no press at COP28. A tiny percentage of such initiatives are getting funded. It’s the “begging bowl” perception rather than being seen as a market-driven investment. Given that, we must continue developing innovative solutions to resolve this threat. We must turn that perception around with a solution having very high (100x) returns. Once funded, we can expand the solution with confidence to protect millions of lives.
So, how to select and target the global impact investors, multilateral institutions, and even our governments, to support the program? We require better messaging, firstly for traction to fund the project and then funding support needs for the total solution.
We need the right people to hear these stand-out investment stories to have a chance.
What Support Communities Have a Role?
Can support systems contribute to de-risking the major threats to Lake Kivu’s community? How could the investment community get to participate in the multiple needs to take care of the layered problems to be solved? Some come to mind:
Local community groups: Activist groups can play a pivotal role in advocating for safe solutions enabled by the best clean energy projects. Most communities living around Lake Kivu have long suffered trauma. Too many are impoverished and imperiled by long-running regional conflicts in the DRC. While a few live in lakeside villas, most live in lava-block homes and shacks, most lacking services. Most are uninformed about details of the risks but may have heard something.
In Rwanda, the people are largely agrarian-based, established, and hard-working. For them, earning market value from fresh products is stymied by transport costs and lack of refrigeration. Access to the nearest city markets could add to earnings without spoilage. Can they get cheaper energy to benefit more from produce?
International organizations: Organizations like UNESCO and the World Bank are aware of the risks faced by these communities. They recognize the need for cheaper power. They support clean energy solutions like solar power. Aware of the dangers and promise of Lake Kivu, multilateral institutions have searched and prepared for such solutions to the region’s economic challenges. They looked at freeing up the lake’s promise by supporting research into rules and regulations.
Academic institutions: European academics have committed twenty or more years of research and expertise on Lake Kivu. A group of scientists and engineers was assembled under the umbrella of the World Bank to improve understanding of the risks and the data, and to specify safety requirements for clean energy solutions. Under these rules and guidelines, local authorities were equipped to monitor the impact. With trained local engineers and scientists, they strived to ensure that developers all implement compliant innovative solutions safely. But without strong institutions, rogue operators have been allowed to ignore them.
Private sector companies: International private sector companies can source funding, expertise, and resources to support complex clean energy solutions. There has been a problem with the quality of solutions put forward. Some have not been good solutions at all, promoting ill-conceived, low-tech projects in breach of the rules. That joint failure to distinguish good solutions from poor options has exacerbated the lake’s problems.
The private sector was sought out by both governments for new technologies to deploy capital and create jobs in local communities. Governments need benefits to flow to communities from such investments. But in calling for investments, can they hope to correctly sort the good from the bad? Decades have been lost in the discovery and deployment of the best options. Even in 2023, we have followed a DRC Lake Kivu Gas Concession process that has triggered investigations by journalists that indicate further delays: Backroom deals, mystery companies, and a ‘killer lake’: inside DRC’s gas and oil auction — The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (en-GB) (thebureauinvestigates.com)
Most decisions on gas concession awards and their management tend to repeat non-performance, whether in allocation, implementing solutions, monitoring outcomes, sanctioning non-compliance with rules, or getting economic results.
Impact investment: Impact investors may fit project funding needs more ideally, driven by their preference to generate social or environmental impact alongside financial returns. Their thesis is supposed to provide at-risk funding for solutions to address social or environmental problems, where quicker returns are not the priority. They seek out potential for returns on investments with a triple bottom line. Can they identify and connect with them?
Potential investment outcomes are seldom as contrasting as those available from alternate solutions provided or offered on Lake Kivu. Outcomes of best-available solutions far outweigh those from projects based on poor technology. With wide variations in outputs, performance, compliance, economics, and safety, it is a complex evaluation but both investors and governments must try to differentiate.
The quality and compliance of technical solutions must be the main determinant. The problem has been the inability of most ventures to upgrade their solutions beyond the 1965 Union Chimique de Belge concept solution. Newer copycat facilities, built to the legacy design concept, have repeatedly failed on compliance issues, i.e., productivity, quality of gas produced, resource wastage, and negative impact on the lake’s structural integrity. The results have given consistently poor investment returns and less than 20% of the potential net energy output.
Threat Perspectives: There is great risk and uncertainty about the impact of bad practices on the lake itself. Not only is the lake at greater risk of eruption but a highly valuable resource is severely degraded and wasted. The long-term viability of the lakeshore to support human habitation may also be greatly compromised.
How can we Follow up on these Issues?
So, help me figure this out. Who else can, or needs, to be part of this support system? Does it have to be a climate movement? The missing players are perhaps unaware of how to get involved, like funders, activists, residents, reforestation experts, and downstream developers of products. Some can use CO2 and biomethane feedstocks.
I invite people to subscribe to look for opportunities to be part of this ecosystem. I am looking to create a shared space for ideas. I drew up a simple graphic with some of the ideas that flow from the core project. There are more than shown. Local startups and entrepreneurs will be a key part of those solutions. In Rwanda, startups working on innovations form a thriving community already.
I would like to post bi-monthly with posts that expand on the opportunities and provide updates on progress. But let me know that I’m not in a solo conversation.
4. A Subscription?
Look for the Subscription button below, as a show of interest. Building a community of common interest can follow, unlikely to ever be behind a paywall.